Magic 8 Ball: Nobel Laureate For Economics?

The traditional definition that economists find consensus with, is that a recession is constituted by: "two consecutive quarters of negative growth". This is where consensus apparently decided to exit; onto a poorly-lit series of side-streets, and finally a dark, foul-smelling back alley known to those who live there as: "2009".

We have witnessed the uncanny knack possessed by the all-knowing stars of the financial world to predict the future as far as the economy goes. Apparently the Economist has become the Weather-Man, because these days transparency and predictability are two luxuries clearly amiss from the financial system. Conflicting opinions and constant revisions of forecast rule the day. One would find more insight from a "Magic 8 Ball" than from these flip-flopping Chicken-Littles/Polyannas we call "Economists".



Unlike these financial gurus who have seemingly been asleep at the wheel for many months, I propose that we form our judgements by a mix of what we observe in our own immediate surroundings and what is occurring in the wider economy.




Here are some of my observations as of late:

• Inventories of produce are literally rotting in the grocery store, as people pare down their grocery expenditures. Coincidentally, Kraft Dinner, a perennial bellwether of economic malaise - has shot up to $1.69/box.
  
• Despite the crash and subsequent stabilisation of crude oil prices, gasoline has settled into a holding pattern in the neighbourhood of 80 cents. Obviously, enough people are still somehow able to purchase gasoline to enable this retailing behaviour to continue. Although there exist pockets of resistance to the obvious price gouging taking place, these companies know full-well that we haven't the collective ability to avoid their tills for any meaningful period of time.

• Certain vehicle dealerships in the United States are resorting to drastic measures to rid themselves of excess inventory. I found this unsettling ad posted on motherjones.com. Looks like the right time to take the leap and buy a truck - as long as you aren't hoping to finance it.
  
  
• On my trip to Future Shop this weekend, I saw two people walk out with large televisions. Nice to see some people are ignoring all this fire and brimstone talk. I also saw the home installation crew loading some equipment into the ConnectPro van. Somebody is still coughing up the few hundred bucks to have their television set-up through the ConnectPro service.

The silver lining to all this crud is that we live in a country as immense and diversified as Canada. We have the fortunate ability to shift stance more rapidly than most other countries in the world. If oil is not doing so hot, we will survive it. If newspapers are rendered fully obsolete, we will be fine. If some other countries, in the rush toward world-dominating industrialisation, ruin their water supplies, contaminate their farms and exhaust their mineral resources, we will still be open for business, with the wisdom and sage guidance of our Magic 8 Ball.